Sony Pictures
It's no secret that the Marvel Cinematic Universe has had its shares of ups and downs over the last handful of years. "Avengers: Endgame" took the MCU to record-shattering heights in 2019, becoming the highest-grossing movie of all time (for a while) with $2.79 billion. Ever since, then, though, the downs have been more frequent than the ups. So, who will save Marvel Studios? Spider-Man, of course! That's because "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" is poised to deliver a massive opening weekend, likely the biggest since the last time the live-action Spidey graced the silver screen.
Directed by Destin Daniel Cretton ("Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings"), "Brand New Day" is currently expected to bring in between $212 and $228 million domestically when it opens next weekend, per Box Office Theory. That number is up quite a bit from earlier estimates, which had Tom Holland's fourth solo "Spider-Man" movie taking in closer to $190 million (per Deadline). The needle keeps moving up for this one.
It certainly doesn't hurt that it will be the first new Hollywood blockbuster to hit theaters in two weeks following Christopher Nolan's box office chart-topper "The Odyssey.". But that film will have had two full weekends to do its thing by the time Marvel's latest arrives. It also can't hurt that the movies share three common stars in Holland, Zendaya, and Jon Bernthal.
The "Spider-Man" franchise has always had massive overseas appeal as well. "Spider-Man: No Way Home" saved theaters when it opened to $594 million globally in 2021, with $334 million of that total coming from international markets. It went on to make more than $1.9 billion globally, including a whopping $1.1 billion overseas. Thus, if current projections hold, Marvel should be looking at another $1 billion hit (easily, we should add).
Sony Pictures
"Brand New Day" takes place four years after "No Way Home" and sees Spidey fighting crime full-time in a world that doesn't remember him due to the spell Doctor Strange (Benedict Cumberbatch) used during the ending of "No Way Home." Unfortunately, the pressure of seeing his old friends move on without him sparks a change in Peter — one that he may not have the power to control as a powerful villain no one can even see arrives in the city.
Marvel's 2025 box office proved that the MCU has fallen from grace, with "Captain America: Brave New World" ($415.1 million) and "Thunderbolts*" ($382.4 million) falling well short of expectations. Even "The Fantastic Four: First Steps" ($521.8 million) only did okay by the MCU's sky-high standards, especially for a movie that was received quite well critically.
Yes, 2024's "Deadpool & Wolverine" made a massive amount of money for Marvel, taking in more than $1.3 billion globally, but those totals are now the exception rather than the rule. In the pre-pandemic days, a movie like "Captain Marvel" was able to sail past $1 billion seemingly with ease. No longer. As such, Marvel has struggled to launch new properties and maintain its place in the cultural hierarchy.
That said, "Spider-Man" remains the most popular superhero franchise on the planet. Interest in this movie is sky high, with the "Brand New Day" trailer making Hollywood history by cracking 1 billion views in record time. Sony Pictures and Marvel Studios have a lot to figure out in the future, but, for now, they're going to have a huge hit on their hands (especially if critics are on its side).
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" reaches theaters on July 31, 2026.
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